Resilience and vulnerability in the Cuba-U.S. scientific collaboration network: a complex network analysis
Keywords:
Colaboración científica; Resiliencia de redes; Diplomacia científica; Análisis de redes complejas; Umbral de percolaciónAbstract
Objective: To assess the resilience of the scientific collaboration network between Cuba and the United States by analyzing its structure, connectivity, and vulnerability to political restrictions and node removals. The study identifies key actors and their dependence on strategic hubs. Design/Methodology/Approach: A complex network analysis was conducted using metrics such as percolation threshold, structural robustness, clustering coefficient, global efficiency, modularity, and hub and authority centrality. The resilience of the real network was compared with a null model, and simulations were performed to evaluate fragmentation under random failures and targeted attacks. Results/Discussion: The network exhibits high connectivity and efficiency (average degree: 65.22; global efficiency: 0.738), indicating an active scientific collaboration. However, its low structural robustness (0.435) and dependence on strategic hubs make it vulnerable to targeted disruptions. The United States, Brazil, and Mexico emerge as the main facilitators of Cuban scientific cooperation. A percolation threshold of 47.47% was identified, suggesting that while the network is moderately resistant to random failures, it is highly susceptible to the removal of key nodes. Conclusions: The network has demonstrated resilience despite political restrictions, but its stability depends on a small group of key actors. The observed abrupt fragmentation in the simulations highlights the need to strengthen interconnections among scientific communities and diversify collaborations to reduce reliance on highly connected nodes. Originality/Value: This study provides a novel analysis of the structural resilience of the Cuba-U.S. scientific collaboration network, offering key insights for science diplomacy and strategies to ensure the sustainability of international cooperation in geopolitically challenging contexts.
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